Sunday, June 19, 2016

Beware Of Brexit Vote Next Week

Market Summary
U.S. stocks finished out the week lower, as investors continued to fret over the possibility that the U.K. may leave the European Union on top of lingering concerns about the Federal Reserve’s reluctance to raise interest rates. Despite the end of the week sell-off, U.S. equities managed to ward off a major slide due to early week strength in the stock market. Next week could be interesting due to the Brexit vote and scheduled comments from Fed Chairperson Janet Yellen. A lot of individual investors are concerned about the slow pace of U.S. economic growth and uncertain pace of global economic growth, terrorism and global unrest, lackluster corporate earnings, the prevailing level of valuations, the forthcoming November elections and monetary policy. Conversely, sustained domestic economic growth, corporate earnings and the proximity of stock prices to their record highs encourage some market watchers. In the chart below “risk-off” asset classes that benefit from low interest rates are far and away the top performers for the second quarter. Uncertainty about the Fed and Brexit will cap upside movement until there is clarity on both,” said Uri Landesman, president of Platinum Partners. Investors are nervous so the market is likely to remain depressed for now, he added.



Trading Strategy
An article published in MarketWatch.com reported on how the long-anticipated “Brexit” referendum on the U.K.’s membership in the European Union is set for Thursday. Polls released in recent weeks showed gathering support for the “leave” vote—an outcome that many economists say would spark widespread turmoil in global markets and possibly sink the U.K. into a recession. Last week we discussed how the Stock Trader’s Almanac talked about how “… the week after Triple-Witching Day is horrendous. This week has experienced DJIA losses in 23 of the last 26 years with average losses of 1.1%. S&P 500 and NASDAQ have fared slightly better during the week after over the same 25 year span, declining 0.7% and 0.2% respectively on average…” We also said “…If the market does pull back, that might be a good opportunity to “buy the dip” with shares in the leading sectors displayed in the chart below…”


By Gregory Clay
Investment Strategist
Click here to Connect on LinkedIn
gregoryclay@nellaadvisors.com


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